SITUATION

2022-03-11

At least 35 people have been killed and 134 injured following an airstrike on a military base in Ukraine close to the Polish border, 30km northwest of the city of Lviv, officials have said. The incident, just 35km from the border, appears to be the attack farthest to the west since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February. Russian forces fired more than 30 cruise missiles at the Yavoriv military range, the governor of the Lviv region, Maksym Kozytskyi, said. The U.S. and NATO have regularly sent instructors to the range, also known as the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre, to train Ukrainian military personnel.

A New York Times journalist has been killed near Kyiv. Police reports Russian troops opened fire at a car with foreign journalists in Irpin, Kyiv region. One killed, another wounded and in hospital. The killed journalist has later been identified as an American citizen.

The Russian military has reportedly installed a new mayor in the occupied south-eastern Ukrainian city Melitopol following the alleged abduction of the elected mayor, Ivan Fedorov, on Friday afternoon. The illegal action led to large crowds gathered in the southern port of the city on Saturday to protest the alleged abduction of the city’s mayor.

Mariupol’s situation stays critical, officials said, as Russian forces have tightened their noose around the Black Sea port and the number killed by shelling and a 13-day blockade neared 1,600.

Ukraine updated its previous report that Russian aircraft bombed the Belarusian town of Kopani on March 11 in a likely false-flag attack, adding that Russian aircraft also bombed Bukhlichi and Verkhny Terebezh. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian and Belarusian forces have not conducted any military operations toward western Ukraine but that Minsk is “taking measures to strengthen the protection of the border with Ukraine” and Ukraine cannot rule out Belarus entering the war.

The Kremlin likely seeks to increase its combat power by drawing Belarus into the war and leveraging Syrian proxies, in addition to ongoing efforts to directly replace Russian combat losses through individual conscripts that are unlikely to be well-enough trained or motivated to generate effective new combat power. Putin is reportedly conducting an internal purge of general offers and intelligence personnel and recalibrating Russia’s war effort to sustain combat operations far longer than the Kremlin initially planned. Russia likely requires a new wave of combat-effective reservists or recruits in a short period of time to achieve its objectives in Ukraine but is unlikely to be able to generate such a wave.

SRS SERVICES

SRS has personnel stationed in the city of Lviv.  SRS can assist with on-site security coordination, as well as assistance with evacuation, planning and contact with Swedish authorities.

For more information, contact SRS via ukraine@srsgroup.se or +46 (0)8 440 90 70.

Situational Map and Border Crossings of Interest

Situational Map (last updated 2022-03-13, 14:40 CET). Source: UK Ministry of Defence.

GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS

• Due to recent military development and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries, SRS recommends that expat staff and their families in Russia or in countries aligned with Russia in this conflict to i) register with the Swedish Embassy at se or ii) evacuate to an EU-member state.

COMPANIES AND ORGANISATIONS

• If your business is in one of the impacted or neighbouring countries (e.g., Poland, Romania, Hungary, Lithuania or Latvia), SRS recommends updating emergency response plans and security instructions. Prepare evacuation of staff, secure and/or shred sensitive documents and back-up of key information and IT-systems.

PRIVATE INDIVIDUALS

• Be aware of false information and news sources. Learn more about source criticism at se.
• SRS also recommends visiting the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) website (msb.se) to learn more about recommendations and safety precautions in times of crisis.